Uttar Pradesh 2027: three surveys, three different pictures

With the 403-seat Uttar Pradesh Assembly election due early next year, recent surveys disagree sharply. The BJP won 255 seats in 2022, and 202 are needed for a majority.

A pre-poll survey by News Leader and Matrize projects the BJP-led alliance at 267 seats and the Samajwadi Party-led alliance at 132, with vote shares of about 44 per cent and 38 per cent. A separate poll by Janta Ki Awaz, covering 83,250 respondents, projects the SP-led alliance at 195 to 204 seats and the BJP-led alliance at 183 to 192, with near-equal vote shares. That poll has drawn doubts about the pollster's past accuracy.

A third survey, of about 31,000 people between September 17 and October 2, found that the SP–Congress combination has improved its position compared with 2022 and 2024, while 66.2 per cent of respondents wanted Yogi Adityanath to continue as chief minister. Voters who backed the BJP cited law and order, infrastructure and welfare delivery.

Surveys this far from polling day are only snapshots. Methods differ, the voter rolls are being revised, and alliances and candidate lists are not final. The BJP has begun a round of strategy meetings in Lucknow, Mathura and Varanasi.